Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
